The state of military production in “United Europe” is becoming quite a paradox. There are escalating tensions stemming from various corners, with the next-generation European tank sitting at the center of the controversy. This disagreement appears to be taking flight, with the dual next-generation [6th generation] FCAS and GCAP aircraft programs on the cusp of quadrupling. Signs of this divergence are most prominent in Sweden and France.

Sources from Spain reveal that Sweden is making strides towards the development of its distinct next-generation fighter jet. Specifically, Saab, a local firm, has been commissioned by Sweden’s defense procurement organization, FMV, to explore the concept of their upcoming Swedish fighter jet.

Saab has been tasked with carrying out “conceptual studies of future combat systems,” according to the company, which will span across this year and the next. These studies include “conceptual studies of manned and unmanned solutions from a systems perspective, technology development, and demonstrations.” As stated by the source, Saab will work in collaboration with FMV, the Swedish Armed Forces, the Swedish Defense Research Agency, GKN Aerospace, and other industry partners on this initiative.

Photo credit: Dassault Aviation
Swedish significant success
Formerly, Sweden, along with Italy, participated in the UK-led Tempest program. However, it strategically chose to exit the initiative when it transformed into the GCAP [Global Combat Air Program], leaving its former partners and Japan in the project.

Contrary to GCAP, FCAS [Future Combat Air System] is currently undergoing development within Europe, with its primary focus being the acquisition of a sixth-generation fighter. Germany, France, and Spain are all equally invested in this endeavor.

Following its withdrawal from a UK-led initiative, Stockholm now has an extensive timeline until 2031 to announce whether it will join one of the two current programs, opt for products developed by a third party, or embark on creating its own.

This final option is currently being considered by Saab and GKN in their latest studies. Keep in mind, that Sweden isn’t new to the game. They’ve had significant success with their domestic fighter, the Gripen, offering robust competition to the European Eurofighter—a collaborative effort by Germany, the UK, Italy, and Spain—and France’s Rafale.

France too

Speaking of Rafale, it seems France is not lagging behind and is also rumored to be developing its own 6th-generation fighter jet. Although this intel is speculative, it isn’t beyond belief, given the disagreements over the distribution of roles in FCAS. This kind of conflict is not unheard of, especially when considering the ongoing disagreement between Germany and France over their responsibilities in the next-generation tank project.

Painting a slightly less than rosy picture, Europe could be facing up to four competing 6th generation fighter jet projects, while the US vigorously moves forward with its NGAD program. Reports even suggest that a prototype has been airborne for a few years now.

Turning our attention back to Sweden, Saab’s Director of the Aeronautics Business sector, Lars Tosman, is confident about their position. Following the mandate from FMV, Tosman states, “Having recently developed the Gripen E fighter and surveillance aircraft Global Eye, we bring to the table advanced technology and engineering expertise necessary for future fighter concept development.”

Photo credit: Wikipedia
FCAP and GCAP
At present, there are two officially recognized programs in Europe: FCAP and GCAP. In this article, we’ll break down the key components of these two programs before taking a closer look at the French and Swedish ventures. This step is crucial because as we delve deeper into the scenario, it can become a little complex to differentiate them.

In the worldwide competition to redefine the future of air defense systems, two initiatives stand out – the European Future Combat Air System [FCAS] and the UK’s Tempest program, also known as the Global Combat Air Program [GCAP]. These ventures are focused on navigating the changing landscape of airborne warfare and utilizing cutting-edge technology to gain an advantage over competitors.

Photo credit: BAE Systems
The FCAS initiative is an ambitious collaboration between France, Germany, and Spain, led by Airbus and Dassault Aviation. What is their goal? To create a state-of-the-art, adaptable, and interconnected multi-platform system. This will include a next-generation fighter jet, autonomous ‘remote carriers’ for unmanned operations, and an ‘Air Combat Cloud’ specifically designed for data distribution and networked activities.

On the other hand, the GCAP is a sincere UK-led initiative with industry giants such as BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo UK, and MBDA UK steering the project. Its primary focus is the development of Tempest, a sixth-generation stealth fighter. This fighter is intended to function in collaboration with supporting drones and a wide array of cutting-edge technologies.

Comparing
Photo credit: British MoD
It’s worth noting that both initiatives share common goals. They’re unified in their push to cultivate a holistic system, harmonizing both manned and unmanned platforms with next-gen technologies such as machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data cloud solutions. Moreover, they’re striving to ensure future air dominance for their respective countries.

That being said, differences do exist. While FCAS is a multinational effort, GCAP is primarily UK-based, albeit open to international alliances. FCAS emphasizes a versatile multi-platform setup, whereas GCAP pivots around a single, highly advanced stealth fighter. The timeframes also differ, with FCAS targeting operational readiness by 2040 and GCAP aiming for a 2035 rollout.

France once left
Photo credit: French MoD
Let’s observe it objectively: both programs progress at a snail’s pace. However, the potential emergence of new Swedish-French programs could pose a threat. Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane, courtesy of BulgarianMilitary.com. This trip brings us back to the moment France abandoned the Eurofighter Typhoon, a European-sourced project. Paris had no choice but to create its own fighter, leading to the advent of the Rafale.

Today, the Rafale is making significant strides both domestically and globally, even presenting a potentially fatal threat to Sukhoi’s markets – territories that France would not have considered trading in previously. The Eurofighter, in contrast, isn’t performing as well globally as initially anticipated.

Sweden vs. Russian design
Photo credit: RSAF
On the other hand, Sweden is struggling to sell its Gripen. This is not due to any shortcomings in the aircraft – it is, in fact, excellent. However, the stiff competition from the F-16 and the Block 70/72’s performance, compounded by Washington’s influence among budget-constrained countries, presents a significant obstacle. Regardless, Sweden always manages to find a workaround. A perfect example is the recent establishment of a new plant in Brazil, combined with technology sharing with partner countries.

There’s even a possibility that Sweden, should they decide to develop a 6th generation fighter, may outperform the other three European ones. The Gripen’s design is geared toward combating Russian fighters. When it comes to posing a genuine aerial threat to Russian Sukhoi and Mikoyan, the Gripen takes the lead.

Only time can reveal the fate of these high-stakes projects. Nonetheless, a consistent chorus of voices warns that the only way to achieve success is through collaboration on a single, European sixth-generation fighter project.